Industry Insights

Diversity vs. Inclusion: There’s a Difference!

CRE Insight Journal does a great job explaining the difference between diversity and inclusion. They invite Patti Digh, founder of the School of Inclusion + Activism, to talk about this topic and she wants to make one thing clear: diversity and inclusion are not the same things. While the two concepts work hand-in-hand and should both be pursued, there is a clear distinction between the two. In order for companies to both diversify their staff and create a culture of inclusion, they must know what they are trying to achieve. Digh helps explain the differences and gives reasons why both concepts should be on a leader’s radar.

Learn More: http://leader.creinsightjournal.com/the-difference-between-diversity-and-inclusion-patti-digh/

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2020 CRE Outlook and What It Means for Hiring

With a new decade upon us, many are concerned about the 2020 CRE outlook and how the new year will play out for hiring. Certainly, numerous factors will influence the commercial real estate market this year – from new local regulations to global trade wars to the national economic cycle. But will things be drastically worse, much better, or more of the same?

The research and reports division of CBRE – a prominent commercial real estate investment and data firm – recently released their outlook for 2020. Overall, the outlook appears positive. But there are a few bumps along the road as well as subtle winds and turns to prepare for. Let’s break down the primary sectors and determine what the 2020 CRE outlook is for the various market sectors and hiring.

The Economy

The US is currently enjoying the longest economic boom in recent memory, but it’s certain not to last forever. However, 2020 will likely not see an outright recession. Though growth will likely slow to near 2%, facing a trade war with China and waning fiscal stimulus, the slowdown will be barely noticeable. The commercial property markets should prove resilient, thanks in part to preventive interest rate cuts and other stimulating policy moves. Property market fundamentals should remain strong.

Capital Markets

The CBRE report predicts commercial real estate investment volume will remain high – on par with that of 2019. The cost of capital will remain low. This, combined with increased foreign investment, domestic investment into CRE, and lower interest rates, will mean most capital markets remain strong.

However, some sectors like multifamily may see some cooling off. And investment overall is expected to decrease at least 5%. This late in the economic cycle, it is understandable to see decreased risk tolerance in investors. Yet the search for yield combined with the significantly low cost of capital will likely bolster investment in some asset types such as alternative use real estate.

Office Space

While office-related hiring growth will slow down, the US is still likely to experience about .3% growth. This means office property completions will slow down, and downtown vacancies will increase. The primary demand for office space should continue to come from the technology sector – especially in markets such as Austin and San Francisco. Flexible office space inventory should grow by about 13% in 2020.

Industrial & Logistics

The 2020 CRE outlook includes a downturn in demand for industrial space. It is possible that supply will outpace demand by approximately 30 billion square feet. Outsourcing and industrial shifts are reducing demand for industrial real estate, yet vacancies should remain very low. Third-party logistics providers will likely fill this vacuum to some extent in the coming decade but not soon enough to impact 2020. Rent growth should remain around 5%

Retail

Consumer spending will remain strong slowing slightly to around 2%. Spending at this level will continue to support job growth and modest investment gains. However, with uncertainty in the world economy – especially in regards to the trade war with China – consumers may be more cautious, and retail demand will probably slow in many areas.

However, this year marks the beginning of a new trend for retail. Generation Z is increasingly turning to shopping malls and retail outlets in search of experience-based consumption. According to a recent study, over 80% of Gen Z prefer in-store shopping, which should drive traffic back to retail centers and malls.

Multifamily

2020 is expected to hold a slight downturn for multifamily properties. Vacancy levels should rise to about 4.5%, and demand should drop about 20%. Developers will still remain active, but the focus is on shifting to the suburbs. Rent regulations are also impacting some areas like California, New York, and elsewhere. San Francisco and Los Angeles both experienced slowing in multifamily after California enacted rent controls in 2018, and this year may see a further slowing for the same reason.

The 2020 CRE Outlook for Hiring

In light of these developments and trends, the 2020 CRE outlook for hiring is shaping up to be much like 2019. Hiring overall will remain high, but the field will require more talented and experienced professionals. As the economy begins to slow down, more unqualified applicants will cloud the talent pool. Now more than ever, an effective and strategic hiring process is vital in the CRE field.

On the job applicant side, prospective employees can expect a more stringent review process. Employers will likely be more selective as they brace for the coming slowdown. They will place more emphasis on cultural fit and experience.

The 2020 CRE outlook involves some minor shifts, but overall, it should be a great year. Smart companies and professionals who are paying attention will spot some new opportunities and continue to leverage old ones. Rate of growth will slow, but it will still be a growth year overall.

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What Commercial Real Estate Trends to Watch in 2020

he United States is currently experiencing its longest expansion in history, leading many in the real estate industry believe we’ll continue on the path of slow and steady growth as we head into 2020. The Urban Land Institute and PwC recently released the Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2020® report, which reflects the views of 750 individuals and 1,500 survey respondents from the real estate industry on where they see the market going in the coming year.

  • Industry players expect sustainable but slower growth for the U.S. economy and real estate market in 2020.
  • Baby boomers and millennials will have significant impacts on housing, office and other property sectors.
  • Austin topped the list of the markets to watch due to its strong population growth and investor demand.

Read More: https://arbor.com/blog/emerging-commercial-real-estate-trends-uli-pwc-2020/

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2020 U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook

2020 could be a pivotal year for the U.S. commercial real estate industry, with geopolitical, economic and local regulatory issues in keen focus. Despite transformational changes to our business, CBRE’s 2020 U.S. Outlook predicts a very good year for commercial real estate.

Resilient economic activity, strong property fundamentals, low interest rates and the relative attractiveness of real estate as an asset class are the primary factors supporting our outlook. Barring any unforeseen risks, we assess that a recession will be avoided, thanks in large part to the stimulatory effects of the Fed’s rate cuts in 2019.

Learn More at: https://www.cbre.us/research-and-reports/US-Real-Estate-Market-Outlook-2020

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Hiring projections for 2020?

Hiring projections for 2020? Overwhelmingly, studies predict 2020 hiring will remain relatively unchanged year over year. Looking back on the last election year, 2016, the January Effect from budgets at full force and the mentality of New Year New Job will jump start 2020, as it did in the very lucrative 2016. Q1 bonuses will keep the momentum going with people who have cashed out and are at the point in their career a change is needed. April bonuses for young Analysts and Associates cause the yearly Bonus>Boom>Gone force as they move up to make way for the next crop of newbies. As we approach the 2020 election hiring will begin to pause if 2016 is any model. The real estate industry like the stock market thrives on certainty. The media will revel in signs of a recession as the slow down progresses. But if 2020 is like 2016, after the election and everyone has 2 weeks to process the results, hiring will make up for lost time. Susan Phillips, CEO, SelectLeaders Job Network.

To Read More Follow This Link: https://www.selectleaders.com/resources/2020-projections/

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Surprising Job Vacancy Costs You Can’t Afford to Overlook

It may be tempting to leave a vacancy unfilled in order to save money, but there are hidden job vacancy costs that will hurt you in the long run. Many of these hidden costs are substantial in and of themselves, but taken cumulatively, they could be catastrophic.

If you’re looking to calculate the cost of your vacant position or weigh the pros and cons of leaving a CRE position vacant, read on. Don’t run the risk of losing money you can’t reclaim.

A vacant position means payroll savings, right?

When someone in your organization moves on and leaves a vacancy, it might be tempting to leave it unfilled. After all, you have other people in their department who could share these responsibilities. Or perhaps you want to fill the position, b

ut now just isn’t a good time. At least you are saving on payrolls costs at present, right?

But as HR and hiring guru Dr. John Sullivan wrote about, the laser-focus on cost containment can create a blind spot for job vacancy costs that are only noticeable in the long term. This is especially true in sectors like CRE, because the emphasis is so often on cutting overhead. Yet overlooking these costs will inevitably cost your business far more than the payroll savings.

Typically, these job vacancy costs are overlooked because they are indirect, yet more expensive than you think. Trickling down, the liabilities of losing an employee or team member spread throughout your organization in surprisingly detrimental ways. This is why employee retention is so vital – especially in a competitive market.

6 Overlooked Job Vacancy Costs

These job vacancy costs fall primarily into six, specific categories. Each open, unfilled position will usually cost you in most or all six of these areas:

1. Revenue Costs

The most obvious job vacancy costs are of course related to the lost revenue from a position no longer being filled. Depending on the position, there may be associated costs from decreased response time, less innovation, underutilized assets, and inferior productivity that comes from others unfamiliar with the task filling in for the missing team member. A manager-level employee typically generates revenue equal to three to five times the amount of their salary. Leaving a position unfilled that paid only $50,000 annually could cost you $250,000 each year just in lost revenue.

2. Management Costs

Leaving a hole unplugged on a team means more stress and less productivity for team managers:

  • Managers spend less time managing and more time filling in on less valuable duties.
  • There is higher job dissatisfaction and turnover in management.
  • A multiplier effect often results in less productivity teamwide.

3. Personnel Costs

Other personnel receive mixed signals when a position is left vacant. As a result:

  • There are more sick days and tardiness.
  • Employees spend more time trying to learn skills related to the vacant position and do not excel at their own.
  • Quality of work decreases.
  • There is reduced creativity and innovation.
  • Frustration and turnover increase.

4. Customer Costs

Often, job vacancy costs surprisingly come in the form of a degraded customer experience. There may be less focus on the clients and customers. In turn, the reputation of your organization suffers. Long-term loss of market share is a common side effect of unfilled positions.

5. Competitive Advantage Costs

Eventually, if left unfilled, open positions communicate to analysts, potential clients, and potential employees that your firm is overvalued, vulnerable, or uncompetitive:

  • Corporate culture and morale suffer.
  • Partnership opportunities are lost.
  • Resources and assets can be overlooked and underused.

6. Team Costs

Job vacancy costs can mean a whole host of disruptions and liabilities at the team level. These equate to silent revenue drains that compound in the long run:

  • Team cohesion is undermined.
  • Underperforming team members are often retained or even given additional responsibilities.
  • The organization loses the ideas and skills provided by the unreplaced team member.
  • Teams hampered by vacancies often miss incentives and are less engaged and motivated as a result.

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Time Off: Paternity Leave and Vacation Time

“We should take a page from the European script where holidays are a given and embraced by management.”

“The Wall Street Journal reported recently that Deloitte surveyed more than 1,000 US workers and one-in-three said they worried that taking time off would jeopardize their careers, and more than half said that if they used the parental-leave benefits available to them it would be seen as a lack of commitment to the job.”

Read the article summary here: Time Off: Paternity Leave and Vacation Time

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How to Choose the Best CRE Investing Career Path for You

If you’re trying to choose a CRE investing career path, and don’t know which one suits you, read on. If you want a career on the investment side of commercial real estate, this is for you. Understanding the advantages and disadvantages of each investment career and how suited you are to each path is crucial to your success.

We will discuss three primary career fields, break down the financial rewards and risks, and discuss key skills and considerations.

Choosing a CRE Investing Career Path

Maybe you’ve been considering a career in investment banking. Or perhaps you wouldn’t mind having a building or two with your name on the front. Or perhaps you are excited about working with capital and assets. Whatever brought you to commercial real estate (CRE) investing, knowing the path to choose can be confusing when you’re starting out.

The most common CRE investing career paths to choose from are in brokerage, lending, and on the principal side. Some have more risk than others, but also greater earning potential. And each requires different skills sets and work-style personalities to succeed. Let’s break down each to discover which CRE investing career path suits you best.

Brokerage

Working in brokerage is an open road to great money without a degree from a fancy school or a perfect GPA – as long as you know how to hustle and network. It allows you to work directly with assets and investors, generate significant cashflow, and eventually work for yourself making your own hours and schedule. Essentially, CRE brokers do what investment bankers do, but for properties rather than companies.

  • Personality Brokerage is a great CRE investing career path for those who desire autonomy and have the persistence and outgoing personality to make it work. Brokers can work on deals for years at a time before seeing results, so persistence is essential. You will most likely be out and about rather than behind a desk most of the time.
  • Compensation The sky is the limit when it comes to how much a CRE broker earns. If you’re are dedicated to the business and create and maintain a solid network of relationships and leads, you can make millions in a good year. Bare in mind though that most of these roles are solely commission-based, so your compensation is directly tied to your performance and ability to bring in and close deals.
  • Key Skills Brokers in CRE investing must be good at sales. Brokerage positions rely heavily on the ability to work with people and move deals. Also, whether you work as an analyst or associate or have someone filling those roles for you, you must understand basic financial modeling and deal analysis.

Lending

Lenders are fiduciaries to their companies or capital providers. This path provides a great back-door route to the finance industry with or without a degree from a target school.

  • Personality This CRE investment career path suits people who are rational decision makers with a lower risk tolerance. Successful CRE professionals in lending also enjoy building relationships with mortgage brokers, principals, and developers or other borrowers.
  • Compensation Income is rather stable in both up and down times and is largely composed of a set base with some upside.
  • Key Skills A lending career in CRE typically begins as an analyst or associate, so the ability to run financial models and perform deal analysis are critical skills for this role. Additionally, good people skills and the ability to build vibrant networks are indispensable to success in lending.

Principal

This is the CRE investing career path for you if you are interested in the ownership side of the industry. The principal is the firm or individual that puts up the capital to pay for the investment property. Working in this career path means you are the ultimate decision maker on moving forward with investing in deals, but it will require additional education and the ability to manage and evaluate investments.

  • Personality A principal, or individual working for the principal, must have strong persistence, as deals often take years to finalize. Relationship-focused people thrive, as this role involves matchmaking. Additionally, it helps to have a flare for negotiating, because this role requires hands-on involvement in deal making and negotiation. An analytical and strategic mind separate the successful investors from the rest as coming up with creative business plans/deal structures to align with company goals is the key to a profitable investment.
  • Compensation This CRE investing career path combines the best of both worlds, so to speak. There is typically a strong base salary as well as commissions and large bonuses, depending on your role on the principal side. The ceiling is even higher when you work for yourself rather than a firm.
  • Key Skills This role requires the ability to physically inspect and assess properties. Financial modeling/analysis is of course necessary to ensure profitable deals. And perhaps most importantly, it requires strong networking and capital-raising skills. The ability to raise investment funds and network with high-net-worth individuals is of the essence in this career path.

Sources:

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San Diego Developers Wonder When Boom Time Will End

San Diego development is still booming with exciting opportunities to bring more tech companies into the region. Last week’s panel emphasized how San Diego is still relatively cheaper than the rest of the West Coast and access to capital is plentiful.

Read the full panel recap here: San Diego developers wonder when boom time will end

Published in the San Diego Tribune by Phillip Molnar on June 19, 2019

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